Picture by Depo Photos/ABACA/ABACA/PA Images. All rights reserved. Like
every football championship around the world in which contenders
compete for a
title,
many regional and international powers have entered the “Syrian
playground” and
the title in this case is
called
“leverage
in Syria”. the United States and the Russian Federation have been
the main players, however,
France,
China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel all
compete for roles commensurate with the size of their influence
within Syria.
It
seems that the Russian Federation is settling things in its favor and
is preparing for the future of Syria as a whole: from writing the
constitution to solving the refugee issue, as
well as the
reconstruction of the country.
This
competition is taking into account the concerns of Washington, Tel
Aviv and Riyadh in terms of removing Iran from Syria, or reducing its
role at the very least.
After
12 Russian Vetos, five of which were bilateral with China, The United
States of America is now convinced that Putin will not give up on
Syria; he will not accept that
other
powers circumvent his victory, either through humanitarian
resolutions, as in Libya in
2011
or through
claims of
non-conventional weapons as had happened in Iraq in
2003.
Consequently,
US President Donald Trump has announced the imminence of his troops’
withdrawal from Syria after accomplishing
their mission of eliminating the militants of the "Islamic
State", and recently linked it to Iran's exit from Syria.
The
American announcement suggests a desire for a proposal from the
players
in the Syrian
war, especially Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Ankara
is the most enthusiastic supporter of nipping the Kurdish project in
the bud, a project that was first declared as self-administration in
early 2014 and later as a federal project for northern Syria in late
2016.
Turkey
conducted
two operations in Syria, the first under the name of the "Euphrates
Shield" culminating in taking control of Jarablous, Azzaz and
Bab, and followed by operation "olive branch" earlier this
year. Through these operations, Turkey was able to control the
Afrin
region, ending the project of Northern Syria Federation which
included, in addition to Afrin, the Euphrates region (Kobani and Tel
Abyad) and Al-Jazeera region, forcing it to settle in the eastern
Euphrates River (American influence area) as there was a
Russian-American understanding that prevented Moscow’s
allies from crossing to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River
except in
Boukamal and Mayadeen.
In
addition to
that there is
the
military
and security presence of the Syrian government in Qamishli and
Hasakah, in exchange for Russia's approval for the US allies to
control the city of Tabqa with its strategic dam and military
airport, as well as the city of Manbij.
The
Russian Federation is trying to maintain a good level of relations
with Saudi Arabia because of its great economic and influential
religious weight, bearing in mind that Muslims constitute the
majority of 7 republics within the Russian Federation. Moscow's
support for Security Council resolutions in favor of Saudi-led Arab
Coalition in Yemen, clearly demonstrates
the strong relationship between them.
Saudi
Arabia's strong man, Mohammed bin Salman, has acknowledged that Syria
is within Russian influence and that President Bashar al-Assad's
regime must be strong in countering Iran's growing influence in
Syria. He clearly stated: “I believe Bashar is staying for now. And
Syria has been part of the Russian influence in the Middle East for a
very long time (…)
it would be better
for Russia
to have direct strength and to
empower Bashar…these interests could reduce the Iranian influence
significantly”.
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coordinating with the
Russian
President Vladimir Putin in the smallest details, acknowledging the
Russian role in Syria and the survival of Assad. But he demands
removing Iran from the equation of the Syrian solution, and his
defense minister Avigdor Lieberman expressed this clearly when he
sent a message to Assad from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights:
“Get rid of the Iranians, get rid of Qassem Soleimani and the Al
Quds
force, they are not helping you, they are only harming…Get rid of
the Iranians and we can, perhaps, change our mode of life here”.
Israel
has accused Iran of firing rockets from Syria towards the occupied
Golan Heights in a precedent of its kind, which has increased the
determination of Tel Aviv to remove Tehran from areas adjacent to its
border with Syria. This is what really happened when the Syrian army
deployed along the border with the deployment of the Russian military
police, and led to the removal of all the presence of militias close
to Iran.
There
were peer-to-peer relations between Syria and Tehran
under former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in a manner that does
not contradict the Arab consensus where Syria was the most important
side of the Arabic triangle alongside
Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
It
is different under Bashar al-Assad; starting with the Iraq war, as
well as the international pressure that followed the assassination of
former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in early 2005 and also
the July 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
The
situation differs significantly during the Syrian war, which broke
out in 2011. It resulted in
the same situation experienced by the two countries in facing the
risk of disappearing in the midst of the so-called Arab Spring.
It
is clear that there is consensus among the parties to the Syrian
conflict to end or reduce the growing role of Iran in Syria, and the
biggest burden, in this case, will be on the Syrian government, which
must find a way out of this crisis, and find a formula to maintain
its strategic ally without letting it have the power to upset
others.
A
return to the model of the Assad senior relationship with Tehran may
be the best way to reach a political solution that is acceptable
regionally and internationally.