By the Secret Psychic Spy, WrestlingObserver.com
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $998.10
Last week (Feb 28): 2/4 (1 push)
Overall: 28/47 (60%)
Two weeks ago, we basically broke even with a very slight loss. Overall we are down just a bit but it’s a long year with lots of time to bounce back. This weekend is UFC 185, which is a strong deep card with a lot of big favorites and big underdogs. I’ve looked at all the fights and come up with the five picks for which you get the best value for your betting dollar. This week, for the first time, my hubris got the better of me as I agreed to let Todd have the first pick each week and this week his pick is the same as mine and on principle, I’m going to pick someone else. But I’m thinking that Todd will increase his lead this week.
Pick 1: Roy Nelson (20-10) (+165) over Alistair Overeem (38-14) | I’m betting $100 to win $165
Nelson had the first KO loss of his career in his last fight to hard hitting Mark Hunt. But he’s proven in the past that he can take a beating. Overeem knocked out Stefan Struve in his last fight but Struve is a shell of his former self. Prior to that, Overeem looked awful in his previous two fights. In this new drug free era, Overeem’s a sitting duck for the powerful punches of Nelson. No idea why Nelson’s a favorite here and he might not be at fight time. This was Todd’s pick as well and he claimed it when the line was better.
Pick 2: Daron Cruickshank (16-5) (-140) over Beneil Dariush (9-1) | I’m betting $100 to win $71.43
The “Detroit Superstar” is a big step up in competition for Dariush. He’s generally been able to knock out fighters the caliber of Dariush in the past and I expect the same here. Remember Dariush was knocked out by Ramsey Nijem, who isn’t nearly the striker that Cruickshank is.
Pick 3: Carla Esparza (10-2) (-165) over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0) | I’m betting $100 to win $60.61
Esparza has fought all the top names in her division in going 5-0 in UFC and Invicta and that doesn’t include her three wins in the TUF tournament. Her last loss was a split decision to the consensus world #1 Jessica Aguilar. Jedrzejczyk lost her last fight in my opinion and many others and has kind of padded her record against weaker competition. This is kind of a slam dunk in my opinion.
Pick 4: Elias Theodorou (10-0) (-345) over Roger Narvaez (7-1) | I’m betting $100 to win $28.99
I wish the odds were a little better on these next two as anything can happen in MMA. That said, Theodorou is young, undefeated, and seems to be getting better with each fight. Narvaez looked awful a year against Patrick Cummins and scored a majority decision in his last fight so he’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. I think this is close to a sure thing on this card as there is so I’ll take the relatively low reward for almost no risk.
Pick 5: Jared Rosholt (11-2) (-320) vs Josh Copeland (9-1) _ I’m betting $100 to win $31.25
Don’t let Copeland’s record fool you. It was racked up in low level regionals and when he got to UFC he was basically a punching bag Ruslan Magomedov. I believe he landed less than 10 total strikes in a fight that lasted the full three rounds. Rosholt on the other hand is one of the top prospects in the Heavyweight division. He lost his last fight via first round KO, which can happen to anyone in this division but he had won his three prior UFC fights in fairly dominant fashion.
All told, I’m risking $500 with the chance to win $357.27.
*****
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin
On with the betting game. As mentioned above, I have Daron Cruickshank.
Standings:
Todd Martin: $575.24 (Picked Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
Secret Psychic Spy: $355 (Picked Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)
Todd’s pick Raquel Pennington lost last week and my pick Roman Salazar went to a no contest with Kid Yamamoto so I keep my $100 and inch a little closer to Todd. As previously mentioned, I really think Todd’s going to increase his lead this week but that’s what I get for letting him pick first. It should be noted that he got Nelson at much better than he’s currently at since he sent this to me last week.
Here’s Todd’s pick for this week, with his analysis:
Roy Nelson +200 over Alistair Overeem
It’s a heavyweight battle of chins: one of the best against one of the worst. Overeem will win most of the fight. But then he’ll get knocked out. I’m convinced of this to the point it makes me nervous. How does it not happen that way?
Todd will have $300 more in his tally should Nelson win. We will have about $170 more if Cruickshank wins. Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else, let’s beat Todd Martin.