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Military-backed party heading for surprise win in first Thai election since 2014 coup

Posted on July 11, 2020

Thailand’s military-backed party was on Sunday night headed for an unexpected win over a populist party leading a “democratic front” in the country’s first election since a 2014 coup.

Early partial results announced by the Southeast Asian nation’s election commission after it had counted 89 percent of votes put Phalang Pracharat, led by military junta chief Prayuth Chan-o-cha, in the lead with 7 million votes. The main opposition party, Pheu Thai, had 6.6 million.

However, in another surprise twist, Ittiporn Boonprakong, the commission chairman, said the full unofficial results would only be declared on Monday morning, without giving any reason for the delay.

Polling day saw a high turnout among Thailand’s 51.2 million eligible voters who were determined to cast their ballots after five years of military rule under a junta led by General Prayuth.

The close result reflects the deep divisions that remain between supporters of the pro-monarchy junta and those who back Pheu Thai and other parties aligned with Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former prime minister currently living in exile.

Sudarat Keyuraphan, leader of the Pheu Thai Party, is also in the running for prime ministerCredit:
Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters

Junta critics have blamed military rule for an under-performing economy and lack of democratic freedoms, while its supporters claim the army has stabilised the country.

The initial results did not reveal how many of the 500 seats in the lower house of parliament each party had won, nor indicate their ability to form a ruling coalition.

However, the odds have already been weighted in favour of the junta returning to power through the civilian Phalang Pracharat Party, due to recent electoral reforms that have been denounced by opposition parties as unfair.  

A 250-strong Senate, largely selected by the junta, and a new proportional system were intended to manoeuvre Phalang Pracharat and Mr Prayuth into prime position to maintain the premiership and overall control.

With the benefit of the Senate votes, the party has a huge head start over its rivals in the lower House of Representatives and needs just 126 lower house seats to secure a parliamentary majority.  

Pheu Thai supporters watch the election results come inCredit:
Wason Wanichakorn/AP

Politicians and analysts have long-feared the system not only renders the election unfair, but that it could produce a stalemate or a fragile government unable to firmly lead the country.

The official results do not have to be declared until May 8, allowing time for delicate coalition negotiations or preliminary results to be disputed.

Polling was foreshadowed on Saturday evening by an unusual televised warning from King Maha Vajiralongkorn that voters should support “good” leaders to prevent “chaos.”

The cryptic message was the king’s second intervention into politics ahead of the crunch election. In February, he torpedoed a political bid by his sister, Princess Ubolratana, who was nominated by the Thai Raksa Chart party as its prime ministerial candidate.

The TRC, which would have been a natural coalition ally for Pheu Thai, was later dissolved.

Early polls also indicated a strong performance for the newcomer Future Forward party led by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a charismatic young autoparts tycoon.

Mr Thanathorn energised many of the seven million first-time voters by vowing to end military “dictatorship” and tackle inequality.

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