Refugees in a camp in Colombia, Source: Wikimedia Commons<\/i><\/p>\n
In April 2017
\nthe Venezuelan opposition began a major campaign of street protests against the
\ngovernment of President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. For four months, riot police and the
\nNational Guard clashed almost every day with thousands of protesters on the
\nstreets of Caracas and other Venezuelan cities. <\/p>\n
Armed pro-government civilians,
\nloosely referred to as \u201ccollectives\u201d, also played a role. The death toll was roughly
\none a day, with many of the victims young demonstrators caught up in what human
\nrights organizations called \u201cexcessive use of force\u201d by the security forces.<\/p>\n
According to the
\ngovernment\u2019s account of events, by August, \u201cpeace\u201d had returned to the streets.
\nThe opposition campaign, under the leadership of the Democratic Unity (MUD)
\ncoalition, had failed. <\/p>\n
Among other things, it had sought to force the
\ngovernment to re-establish the powers of the National Assembly (AN, the single-chamber
\nparliament that has been in opposition hands since January 2016), and hold fair
\nand transparent presidential elections.<\/p>\n
Today, the images of Venezuelans that appear in the international press are not of masked protesters throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails. They are of refugees crossing borders with the few possessions they are able to carry.<\/p>\n
Instead, Maduro summoned a Constituent
\nAssembly, boycotted by the MUD , which has functioned ever since its creation as
\nthe supreme legislative body in the government\u2019s eyes. The National Assembly was
\nrendered impotent.<\/p>\n
Today, the
\nimages of Venezuelans that appear in the international press are not of masked
\nprotesters throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails. They are of refugees crossing
\nborders with the few possessions they are able to carry, often with children in
\ntheir arms. They sleep in the streets of Colombian and Brazilian cities and
\nsearch for health care in the overcrowded hospitals of neighbouring countries.<\/p>\n
On 30 July, the 545-member,
\nall-chavista Constituent Assembly was elected \u00a0in a process that violated the principle of
\n\u201cone person = one vote\u201d. The National Electoral Council, which is controlled by
\nthe government, was accused of doctoring turnout figures. Two days later, so
\nmany Venezuelan refugees were arriving at the Colombian border that the queue to
\ncross was seven hours long.<\/p>\n
Around 600,000
\npeople crossed the border in 2017, of whom, according to Save the Children, 48%
\nwere minors. For many of those fleeing, all hope of resolving the country\u2019s
\npredicament in the short term had vanished. At the same time, the crisis itself
\nhad evolved from being a largely internal matter to a concern for the entire region.<\/p>\n
A presidential
\nelection will be held on 20 May, but it is unlikely to break the deadlock. The
\ndate was decided unilaterally by the government, wrecking negotiations under
\nway at the time in the Dominican Republic between government and opposition over
\nelection conditions. <\/p>\n
Half the countries in the region, including the US and
\nCanada, as well as the EU, have already declared that they will not recognise
\nthe result of this \u201cillegitimate\u201d poll . Only a small faction of the
\nopposition, headed by the former governor of Lara state, Henri Falc\u00f3n, has
\nagreed to take part.<\/p>\n
The opposition
\nis split into three main blocks. Aside from Falc\u00f3n and his supporters, those
\nwho refuse to participate in the elections include a number (mainly associated
\nwith the parties that dominate the National Assembly) who still insist on
\nnegotiating a solution, while \u00a0another faction
\nhas formed the Soy Venezuela movement, which is demanding the immediate
\nresignation of Maduro and calling for a \u201chumanitarian intervention\u201d. <\/p>\n
This term
\nis an evident smokescreen for military intervention, the consequences of which could
\ninclude even greater suffering for the civilian population. But it is also true
\nthat, thus far, negotiations with the government have only managed to prove its
\nbad faith.<\/p>\n
In our most
\nrecent report, International Crisis Group analyses the impact of Venezuela\u2019s
\nimplosion on the rest of the region. It is not only a migratory crisis: the
\ncountry that used to export almost nothing but oil now exports disease,
\norganised crime, political instability and economic contraction. <\/p>\n
For now, the
\noutside world can only deal with the symptoms: putting an end to the crisis and
\nfinding a lasting solution depends on substantive negotiations, which will not
\nbe possible without the assistance of foreign governments and multilateral
\norganisations. The economy is also in need of external assistance, as much
\nbilateral as multilateral, as well as private investment.<\/p>\n
It will not be
\neasy to achieve. Venezuela\u2019s government leaders fear, with good reason, that
\nthey could lose everything if they leave power. Until now, the main effect of
\nexternal pressure in the form of individual sanctions imposed by the US and the
\nEU, as well as more general financial sanctions imposed solely by Washington,
\nhas been to further entrench them. <\/p>\n
And internal pressure has been extinguished almost
\ncompletely following the splintering of the opposition, reducing the cost to
\nthe government of maintaining itself in power.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Typically, governments facing such dire economic turmoil do not survive, but there is no alternative currently in sight.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The absolute
\npriority now is to deal with the humanitarian crisis, not only by assisting
\nrefugees and the countries which take them in, but also by finding innovative
\nways of alleviating the extreme hardship \u00a0inside Venezuela which is driving the exodus.
\nBut neither government nor opposition should use humanitarian intervention as a
\npolitical weapon.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Second, governments
\nof the region must find a way to apply sanctions, even when their own legislation
\ndoes not permit them simply to copy those implemented by the US, Canada, the EU
\nand other countries. It is vital that Latin America and the Caribbean take on
\nthe responsibility of helping restore democracy in Venezuela. <\/p>\n
Sanctions should
\ncontinue to be primarily individual, and their lifting must be conditioned on a
\nreturn to the negotiating table and concrete steps towards a democratic
\nrestoration.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sanctions alone
\nwill not produce change. A coordinated political campaign that is both
\npersistent and creative is necessary. For example, it is worth exploring the
\npossibility of convincing the Chinese government to persuade its ally Maduro to
\nengage in serious negotiations. Beijing has refused to lend Venezuela more
\nmoney for some time, but if it wishes to protect its investments there, it
\nshould consider adopting a more proactive approach.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The country has already entered a hyperinflationary
\ncycle. Annual inflation could easily reach 300,000% by the end of 2018 if there
\nis no change of policy after the elections. The government is merely paying a
\nportion of its external debt: \u00a0it has already
\ndefaulted to the tune of more than $3 billion. <\/p>\n
Typically, governments facing
\nsuch dire economic turmoil do not survive, but there is no alternative
\ncurrently in sight. Chavismo has turned the rationing of subsidised foods into
\na mechanism for social and political control, even though these state provisions
\nare insufficient to assuage people\u2019s hunger. <\/p>\n
It is essential to prevent a
\nfurther deterioration of the situation, while avoiding what may seem like easy
\nsolutions in the shape of an oil embargo, or worse, a military intervention.
\nInaction however, is not an option.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Refugees in a camp in Colombia, Source: Wikimedia Commons In April 2017 the Venezuelan opposition began a major campaign of street protests against the government of President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. For four months, riot police and the National Guard clashed almost every day with thousands of protesters on the streets of Caracas and other Venezuelan cities….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}