Gheralta mountains, near Hawzen, Eastern Tigray, Ethiopia, 2017. Sergi Reboredo\/ Press Association. All rights reserved.<\/i><\/p>\n
This October, I have carefully followed\u00a0Messay During the four weeks I just spent in I have also spent a couple of days in 1. \u201cLefort never says that these reforms My article starts with: \u201cAbiy Ahmed has I don\u2019t know how I could have expressed 2 .\u201cAs to the charge of recklessness on I did not make a \u201ccharge\u201d against Abiy 3.\u00a0 When I quote a key political leader Abiy Ahmed himself\u00a0underlined\u00a0\u201cthe 4. \u201cThe accusation that he (Abiy Ahmed) This assertion is shared by all the people 5. \u201cHis aim in characterizing legitimate First, I don\u2019t have any \u201caim\u201d when I In my view, the \u201cultra-nationalism\u201d I agree with one of Messay\u2019s criticisms To present a balanced view, I should 6.\u00a0 The leitmotif of Messay\u2019s critique is Let us start at the beginning. Messay I mentioned that \u201ca dominant force What I wrote, which is radically To do so, what would be crucially This has nothing to do with According to Messay, I am advocating \u201ca 7. \u201cLefort promises that things will be different I did not write that. On the contrary, Again, how could I have expressed this Gheralta mountains, near Hawzen, Eastern Tigray, Ethiopia, 2017. Sergi Reboredo\/ Press Association. All rights reserved. This October, French researcher Ren\u00e9 Lefort published his latest in-depth analysis of Ethiopian affairs on\u00a0openDemocracy and Ethiopia Insight, focusing on the perils facing the reform process. The article elicited a critique from Messay Kebede \u2018Separating the wheat from the chaff…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/892\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nFrench researcher Ren\u00e9 Lefort published his latest in-depth
\nanalysis of Ethiopian affairs on\u00a0openDemocracy and <\/em>Ethiopia
\nInsight<\/em>, focusing on the perils facing the reform process. The
\narticle elicited a critique from Messay Kebede \u2018Separating
\nthe wheat from the chaff on Ethiopia\u2019. This is the author\u2019s response.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n
\nKebede\u2018s work for decades, and I am also a long-time acquaintance. I was
\ntherefore surprised by the form and the substance of his critique of my most recent
\nanalysis. As a researcher, I
\nwelcome criticism, with one important caveat: it must be based on a reasonable
\ninterpretation of what I have actually written, and certainly not on a
\ndistortion of my views. Let me give a few examples of where in this instance
\nI believe Messay has failed this test.<\/p>\n
\nEthiopia, I met at length countless observers, experts, intellectuals, and
\ncurrent and former political leaders. They were overwhelmingly Ethiopian, but
\nthere were also plenty of foreigners during the weeklong International
\nConference of Ethiopian Studies in Mekelle that ended on October 5. In fact,
\nexcept in Mekelle, all the Ethiopians were strong and long-standing opponents
\nto the TPLF-dominated EPRDF government. I have known most of them for years,
\nand we exchange views regularly, off-the-record, in full confidence.<\/p>\n
\nthe countryside, both in Tigray and Amhara. My article is a synthesis of all
\nthese narratives, which were consistent on the main themes, although of course
\ndivergent on matters of nuance. These, then, are my seven specific rebuttals of
\nsome of Messay\u2019s claims:<\/p>\n
\n(launched by Abiy) are necessary\u201d.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nalready gone down in history by breaking\u2014in just a few weeks\u2014almost every rule
\nin the age-old Ethiopian way of governing. His liberal reforms and diplomatic
\nopenings fulfilled the pressing demands of the vast majority of Ethiopians, and
\nthus brought to a halt the infernal spiral into which the country was headed\u201d.
\nAnd a few lines later: \u201cthe salvo of reforms he fired off created the positive
\nshock of which whole swathes of public opinion were dreaming\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nmore clearly how necessary these reforms are.<\/p>\n
\nthe grounds that Abiy invited armed opposition groups and reached peace with
\nthe Eritrean leader\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nfor these actions. Reflecting the opinions I gathered, I pointed to the means
\nof their implementation: \u201cwithout any adequate preparation, without
\nanticipating their effects, and therefore without being able to control their
\nconsequences.\u201d If one proof of this haste is needed, the Oromo Liberation Front
\n(OLF) is a case in point: it says it has never agreed to disarm, the
\nauthorities say the opposite. This is clear evidence of a lack of thorough
\npreparation.<\/p>\n
\nsaying \u201cthe power vacuum is abyssal\u201d, Messay comments: \u201cI thought for a moment
\nthat he (Lefort) was referring to another country\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nchaos, the crisis, the conflict in the nation\u201d At the EPRDF Congress, the final
\ncommuniqu\u00e9 read \u201cwe are witnessing anarchy in the country\u201d. Do chaos and
\nanarchy exist in the absence of a power vacuum?<\/p>\n
\nattempted to sideline the EPRDF, preferring to rely on his charisma and popularity,
\nis a mistaken assertion\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nI spoke to, including some who have worked closely with the PM from the
\nbeginning of his rule. They diverge only on one point: for a few of them, Abiy
\nhad initially at least no other option but to bypass the party.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nclaims (the Amhara claim for territories which incorporated into Tigray) as
\nultra-nationalism is to raise the spectre of Amhara expansionism so as break up
\nthe unity between ODP and ADP\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nwrite my articles, other than to present the situation as I understand it. I
\ndon\u2019t have any intention, right, or ability to interfere with, let alone alter,
\nEthiopia\u2019s political course.<\/p>\n
\ndoesn\u2019t affect the ADP only. I wrote, regarding \u201cthe radicalization of
\nethno-nationalist identities\u201d (plural): \u201cin the past, regional identities were
\nbasically affirmative. Now they are increasingly tainted with exclusiveness, if
\nnot vengefulness and even xenophobia.\u201d\u00a0That\u2019s an unambiguous definition of
\nultra-nationalism.<\/p>\n
\nonly. The trend among Amhara political forces to be \u201cexpansionist\u201d is,\u00a0stricto
\nsensu,<\/em>\u00a0right, because they want to expand some of the current borders
\ninto neighbouring regions. But they claim that these\u00a0\u201cterritories were
\nunjustly incorporated into the Tigray region\u201d. <\/p>\n
\nhave qualified this position as \u201cexpansionist\u201d for those who reject that claim,
\nand \u201cirredentist\u201d for those who support it.<\/p>\n
\nscattered throughout the article. He writes that according to me, the only way
\nout for Abiy\u2019s reformism to succeed is \u201cthrough a return to the discredited
\nhegemonic rule of the past\u2026\u00a0Neither the EPRDF nor the Ethiopian state can
\nfunction without the guidance and the authority of the TPLF\u2026 Without the TPLF,
\nthe EPRDF is blind and ineffective\u2026 It is disconcerting to see a veteran
\nstudent of Ethiopian politics promoting the previous ill of the country to the
\nlevel of a remedy\u2026 As Lefort sees it, the solution to the leadership crisis
\nresponsible for the unrests and conflicts \u201cengulfing\u201d the country is an
\nalliance between the ODP and the TPLF against the Amhara. He thus revives
\nMeles\u2019s old doctrine\u2026 Abiy must restitute the alignment of forces as it existed
\nprior to his election, notably by giving the TPLF the prevalent position it
\nhad, as Lefort claims\u201d.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nwrote: \u201cThe EPRDF is the only path toward maintaining the unity of the country
\nand consolidating it by means of democratic reforms.\u201d I cannot agree more. I
\nwrote: \u201cOnly a strong EPRDF leadership with an affirmed vision can give impetus
\nand direction\u201d (to the state machinery).<\/p>\n
\nemerging inside the EPRDF\u201d would show that \u201cthe end may be in sight for the
\nEPRDF leadership crisis\u201d. But Messay claims that for me the solution to the
\nongoing crisis would be \u201can alliance between the ODP and the TPLF\u201d. This is
\nfalse: I did not use the word \u201calliance\u201d, but \u201crapprochement\u201d, which is quite
\ndifferent. Moreover, I did not say that \u201cthe guidance and the authority of the
\nTPLF\u201d would be necessary to make the state functional. I do not claim, as
\nMessay alleges, that Abiy should give the TPLF the pre-eminent position it had
\nin the past.<\/p>\n
\ndifferent, is that \u2013 taking into account the current feebleness of the EPRDF
\nleadership, the weakness of the ODP-ADP tactical alliance, the divisions among
\nthe Southerners\u2014the TPLF could bring a meaningful reinforcement to \u201cthe
\nemergence of a leadership that can gain credibility through a minimum of
\ninclusivity and cohesiveness\u201d, which in turn is necessary \u201cto put back the
\nparty-state in a working order\u201d; a condition\u00a0sine qua non<\/em>\u00a0to
\nrespond to the most urgent need: re-establishing law and order.<\/p>\n
\nbrought to the table by the TPLF is the expertise accumulated by the Tigrayan
\nmid-ranking officials during two decades, which \u201ccannot be replaced overnight\u201d.
\nSuch experts are not decisions-makers, but are in charge of executing
\neffectively the orders of the ruling party due to their competency. For
\nexample, those I have talked with underline that the current ineffectiveness of
\nthe National Intelligence and Security Service is essentially due to a hasty
\npurge from top to bottom and the replacement of those fired by largely
\nunqualified persons.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cthe\u00a0guidance and the authority of the TPLF\u201d or the re-establishment of
\n\u201cthe prevalent position it had\u201d that I am supposed to have requested. I
\nunderlined that ODP is \u201cthe pillar of the EPRDF\u201d and that\u00a0\u201cthe Oromo
\nnationalist forces are now convinced that Ethiopia\u2019s destiny is in their
\nhands\u201d. This is irreconcilable with Messay\u2019s claim that I ask for the TPLF to
\nregain its former dominance.<\/p>\n
\nreturn to the hegemonic rule of the past\u201d to prevent Abiy\u2019s reformism from
\nfailing. Should it really be necessary to remind him that I have for decades
\ndenounced the hegemony of the TPLF, and explained that it was not sustainable
\nand could only lead to turmoil? I presume it was for this stance that I was
\nprevented from entering Ethiopia several times and even expelled last November.<\/p>\n
\nthis time, given that the TPLF has made its own self-criticism and is ready to
\ngive up its hegemonic tendency\u201d as instanced by its \u201ccommitment to a soft
\nlanding from the summit to a more rational position.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nI wrote that one of the main reasons for the TPLF\u2019s downfall is precisely that
\nit proved incapable of making this move. I said: \u201cRejecting a genuine renewal
\nof ideas and personnel, complacent and arrogant, it (TPLF) proved incapable of
\nrealizing that society had profoundly changed, that its dominance could not
\nlast and that the only way out would have been through a commitment to a soft
\nlanding from the summit to a more rational position.\u201d<\/p>\n
\npoint more clearly?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"