Will Kenyan Dennis Kimetto\u2019s marathon world record of 2:02:57, set at Berlin Marathon in 2014, ever get beaten and will elite men marathoners be able to break the two-hour mark? A team of researchers led by the University of Colorado Boulder believe they can \u2013 and it\u2019s all down to the maths.<\/p>\n
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They have laid out a series of mathematical calculations that show that elite men marathoners could shave about four and a half minutes off the current world record.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Postdoctoral researcher Wouter Hoogkamer, who led the new study, explains the calculations for running a marathon in under two hours include the baseline physiological capacity to run Kimetto\u2019s time. The team then considered biomechanical changes that could reduce energy consumption and improve running economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cPeople have been thinking about the magical sub-two-hour marathon for a long time,\u201d said Hoogkamer. \u201cOur calculations show that a sub-two-hour marathon time could happen right now, but it would require the right course and a lot of organisation.\u201d<\/p>\n
So how can they do it? For starters, say the researchers, the athletes would need shoes roughly 100 grams lighter than Kimetto\u2019s world record shoes, which weighed 230 grams, or just over eight ounces each. A previous study led by Hoogkamer and Professor Roger Kram showed running in 130-gram shoes could shave 57 seconds off a marathon time.<\/p>\n
In addition, a record-breaking elite runner would do best running the first 13 miles of the race as a loop course behind a wedge of marathon \u2018pacemakers.\u2019 \u201cHe would need to draft behind them on a route that blocks the wind like a paved loop through a pine forest\u201d, said new study co-author Kram of the Department of Integrative Physiology.<\/p>\n
\u201cA 1971 study by a British scientist showed that one runner drafting one metre behind another runner in a wind tunnel can reduce air resistance by 93%. But even reducing air resistance for the drafting runner by just 36 percent would improve running economy by 2.7% the savings needed to facilitate a marathon time of 1:59.59 for an athlete capable of running a solo 2:03:00 marathon.\u201d<\/p>\n
The second half of the race, according to the new study, should be slightly downhill but still within the regulations of the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF), with four top runners in a line, one behind the other.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Hoogkamer said: \u201cThey would need to take turns blocking the air resistance and cooperatively \u201cdrafting\u201d off of each other. This could reduce the metabolic cost of the drafting runners by about 5.9%, shaving about three minutes off the current world record.\u201d<\/p>\n
Alternatively, the CU Boulder study showed marathon runners in the second half of the hypothetical course could also shave off about three minutes of time in the marathon if they were lucky enough to have a strong tailwind approaching 13mph.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cWe are not the first team to suggest such ideas to speed up marathon runners,\u201d said Kram, who directs CU Boulder\u2019s Locomotion Laboratory. \u201cBut we are the first to quantify each of the strategies with careful calculations in a single paper.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis study is significant for both scientists and serious marathon runners because we really delve into what we know about the exercise physiology of running, as well as the biomechanics of running,\u201d said Assistant Professor Christopher Arellano of the University of Houston, a study co-author. \u201cNow it\u2019s up to scientists and the most elite marathon runners to put our ideas to the test.\u201d<\/p>\n
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