Democrats are confident that they can turn the GOP\u2019s big victory on taxes against Republicans next fall and use President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE\u2019s signature legislative achievement as a wedge issue to win back the House majority.<\/p>\n
Boosted by polls that show the tax bill is unpopular and that they enjoy\u00a0tail winds headed into next year\u2019s elections, Democrats say this December\u2019s tax win for the GOP will come back to haunt Republicans.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe ads pretty much write themselves: Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress raided our budget to line their own pockets and the pockets of their big donors while most Americans won’t see a dime of relief. Does that sound like government that’s working for you?\u201d Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Republicans believe that as withholding tables change and taxpayers see their paychecks grow next year, the tax bill\u2019s popularity will increase.<\/p>\n
While many in the GOP acknowledge the party faces headwinds next year, they argue the tax bill will ultimately offer the party some protection.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe results are going to make this popular,\u201d House Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanBush, Romney won’t support Trump reelection: NYT Twitter joins Democrats to boost mail-in voting \u2014 here’s why Lobbying world MORE (R-Wis.) said at a news conference this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Republican National Committee is planning to launch a multimillion-dollar effort early next year aimed at targeting Democrats who did not support the bill.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to remind every voter that Republicans gave the American people a historic pay raise while Democrats stood in the way,\u201d Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel told The Hill earlier this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.) warned incumbent Democratic senators in North Dakota, Montana and Indiana, among other red-states, that they will rue voting against the tax bill.<\/p>\n
Some observers believe Democrats need to be a little careful with their attacks.<\/p>\n
Grant Reeher, the director of the Campbell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University, said Democrats have benefitted so far from positive press coverage. He also said that it could be harder to attack the bill if taxpayers start to see some benefits in their paychecks.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough there are many deep problems with this bill \u2014 most notably its effects on overall economic inequality and the national debt \u2014 Democrats have so far gained a lot of traction by spreading misinformation about it, claiming that the middle class will pay more,\u201d Reeher said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe media have largely passed this message along uncritically, and the payoff from the Democratic strategy can be seen in recent polling numbers. But that message will be harder to sustain as we get closer to November 2018, and people start running the 2018 tax numbers for themselves.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Reeher also predicted that Democrats could run into more problems if the stock market continues to do well and the 401(k) accounts of voters continue to grow.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThat might have its strongest effect in the suburbs, where the Democratic revolution is going to take place,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Republicans are already trying to bolster the tax bill\u2019s case by pointing to releases from companies that have announced bonuses or pay hikes that they say are linked to the tax bill. With some of the announcements, there\u2019s been some question about whether the plans were already in place and not linked to the tax bill\u2019s passage.<\/p>\n
Polls show the GOP has some work to do.<\/p>\n
An NBC News\/Wall Street Journal poll out this week showed that 63 percent of those surveyed said the bill would benefit the wealthy and corporations. Meanwhile, a CNN poll also released this week\u00a0showed\u00a055 percent were opposed to the tax-reform legislation, an increase of 10 percentage points from a month ago.<\/p>\n
Democrats are trying to keep those numbers low with public statements slamming the GOP legislation.<\/p>\n
Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.), who may run for president in 2020, called the tax bill \u201cFoolhardy at best and deceitful at worst.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters \u2014 who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.), who may also run for president again, said \u201cwe are witnessing highway robbery in broad daylight and a looting of the Federal Treasury.\u201d<\/p>\n
Former New York City Mayor\u00a0Michael Bloomberg, an independent, called it an \u201ceconomically indefensible blunder that will harm our future.\u201d<\/p>\n
A CNN poll out this week showed that Democrats have an advantage going into 2018.<\/p>\n
Among registered voters, 56 percent of respondents said they favored a Democrat in their congressional district, while 38 percent said they preferred a Republican.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bill Galston, a senior fellow of governance studies at Brookings Institution, who served as a policy adviser to\u00a0former President Clinton during his administration, said Democrats will use the bill to argue that Trump is not putting into place the populist policies he promised. One vulnerability for the president is that the bill does little to change the favorable tax treatment for wealthy investment managers.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo doubt Democrats will be combing the bill for little nuggets, particular provisions that do embody highly targeted policies that will look like giveaways,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd if Democrats want to make an issue of the president, they can use it to weaken any populist credentials he may have.\u201d<\/p>\n
While both parties can make their own cases about how the tax legislation helps or hurts voters, Galston predicted that Democrats may have an easier time making the argument that it\u00a0won’t help the middle class.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThey just have to find effective ways of saying what the majority of the public already believes,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Still, Galston agreed that both parties see political advantages from the tax bill\u2019s passage.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd neither of them are wrong,\u201d he said. \u201cRepublicans are going to brag about passing the legislation and Democrats are going to work just as hard to make the contrary argument. And may the better argument win.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n