The largest outside group supporting President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE\u2019s reelection believes it\u2019s identified some of the \u201chidden\u201d supporters that could tip the balance of the 2020 election in favor of Republicans.<\/p>\n
Pollsters hired by America First Policies (AFP) have spent the past two months interviewing hundreds of self-described independent voters at focus groups conducted in major cities across nine battleground states.<\/p>\n
A source close to the group shared videos of the interviews with The Hill, which featured Trump voters from 2016 revealing that they would not discuss their support for the president with pollsters or acquaintances because they were afraid of backlash from the media and their friends or family.<\/p>\n
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Trump’s allies say they were mocked in 2016 when they claimed the president\u2019s support in the polls was being underestimated because a large contingent of silent Trump backers were ashamed or scared to reveal their political leanings to pollsters.<\/p>\n
The officials believe these same voters need only a gentle prodding from like-minded friends and outreach from the campaign to turn out for Trump again in 2020.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe campaign last cycle was ridiculed about this but it\u2019s still happening,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt shouldn\u2019t be this way but it is this way and especially among women, it\u2019s like, we want to get along with our neighbor, our kids go to the same school, and we\u2019re not going to start talking about politics, especially in this age when it comes up and it\u2019s explosive. There\u2019s a reluctance to get into it, but you know, we\u2019ll go to the ballot box and we\u2019ll vote for the guy, but we\u2019re also not going to pick up a phone and do a poll.\u201d<\/p>\n
The national polls in 2016 were fairly accurate, showing Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House\u00a0accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters \u2014 who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE with a narrow edge. She ended up outpacing Trump by about 2 points in the national popular vote.<\/p>\n
But battleground state polling was a mixed bag and few analysts believed Trump had a realistic path to the White House.<\/p>\n
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In the end, Trump effectively ran the board in the contested swing states. He also turned Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania blue for the first time in decades on the strength of his support from white working-class voters, who largely flew under the radar of campaign operatives and the political press.<\/p>\n
Trump organizers believe there could be a replay of this outcome in 2020, as voters who don\u2019t fit into traditional turnout models, or have much of a platform, go quietly to the polls on Election Day to cast ballots for Trump.<\/p>\n
In one AFP panel of 12 women in Arizona, a woman explained that she voted for Trump but would never put the president\u2019s bumper sticker on her car \u201cbecause I\u2019m not stupid.\u201d<\/p>\n