Grand national assembly of Turkey main chamber. Wikicommons\/VOA. some rights reserved.In politics, a Hot Potato is a topic so contentious
\nthat it causes damage to a candidate whether he shows himself to be for it or
\nnot. For a campaign to be successful, so argue strategists, such issues are
\nbest to be avoided altogether, or, better yet deflected onto the opposing candidate.
\n<\/i><\/p>\n
The term evolved
\nfrom a nineteenth century game, in which participants would sit in a circle and
\npass a lighted match, piece of paper, or candle around until the flame burnt
\nsomeone\u2019s fingers. The group would then choose an embarrassing or painful
\nchallenge for the loser to perform. In later times the flame was substituted
\nwith a hot potato, but the lesson remained the same. Try not to burn your
\nfingers. Perhaps the most poetic part was the accompanying rhyme: \u201cJack\u2019s alive
\nand likely to live. If he dies in your hand you\u2019ve a forfeit to give\u201d.<\/p>\n
As Parliament
\nconvened on June 23, the only forfeit to give was power. And while the
\nelections have been correctly identified as a victory for identity politics,
\nthe ensuing political instability is likely to continue, as any coalition
\ngovernment will have to assume the costs of the AKP\u2019s looming financial debt
\ncrisis. <\/p>\n
The crossroads at
\nwhich Turkey now stands has given rise to the paradoxical situation in which
\neveryone wants to rule, yet no party wants to assume the potentially devastating
\ncost of taking responsibility for the fallout from AKP policies. Even the
\nappointment of a commonly agreed parliamentary speaker is fraught with risk.
\nEither the parties find common ground quickly, or let the clock run out and
\nallow the AKP to keep the prestigious seat. <\/p>\n
As the parties
\npass around the Hot Potato of forming a coalition, the parliamentary system
\nrisks becoming the scapegoat for a lack of political momentum. Already rumors
\nand conspiracy theories abound, with some speculating that the AKP deputies
\nwill vote to keep the HDP speaker candidate in the race, so as to fragment the
\nopposition and present itself as a center alternative. A risky strategy no
\ndoubt, and if nothing else, one that serves as a clear indicator of the
\nunpredictability of current events.<\/p>\n
In the hours
\nfollowing the election results, AKP Deputy Burhan Kuzu, head of the
\nparliamentary constitution committee, described the outcome as an indicator of
\n\u2018the weakness of the parliamentary system\u2019. Although better known for his
\ncolorful outbursts, which include claims that Angela Merkel\u2019s skiing injury was
\nretribution for the Gezi protests, his argument that parliament is weak
\ncontains a hidden truth. <\/p>\n
Despite rumours about infighting within the
\nAKP political elite, a divided parliament may be Erdo\u011fan\u2019s best bet at returning to his
\nformer prominence. Paralysis in parliament will inevitably make the Presidency
\nappear stronger, and may well shift the public\u2019s sympathies back towards the
\nAKP. Add to this the memory of the chaotic 70s, during which Turkey saw more
\nthan ten different coalitions try their hand at ruling the country, and it
\nbecomes clear that the process of coalition forming will undoubtedly be imbued
\nwith negative connotations.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
The formation of
\na coalition Government will be made harder as the adrenaline of a shock
\nelection subsides. That the public has rejected the idea of an expanded
\npresidency, does not automatically entail an endorsement of the parliamentary
\nsystem, especially in a country that has become accustomed to strongman tactics
\nand lightning fast policy changes. With the gradual stagnation of Turkey\u2019s
\neconomy, the loss of investor trust following the graft scandal, and the social
\ncosts of increasing unemployment and rising inflation, the challenge for any
\ncoalition will be to provide fast results, and to pin the crises on the AKP,
\nrather than being crushed under the weight of the aforementioned issues. <\/p>\n
Add to that the
\nuncertainties of foreign policy, the security challenges in the Middle East,
\nand the already vastly increased Presidential influence in international
\npolitics, and it becomes clear that the formation of a coalition Government is
\nto no party\u2019s immediate benefit. That does not take away that the moment is
\nripe for political and economic reform, and that the window of opportunity for
\nmeaningful change has not closed. Certainly, the AKP has suffered a significant
\nsetback, but it means that the coalition building process must be faced with
\ncaution if the opposition wishes to maximize the electoral advantage that it currently
\nenjoys.<\/p>\n
The dilemma is as follows. On the one hand,
\nthe elections have re-energized the parliamentary system, saving it from a
\nstifling decade-spanning majority rule. For the first time since the inception
\nof the AKP, the party finds itself forced to consider forming a coalition in
\norder to govern. On the other hand, the political maneuvering required to
\nachieve a coalition agreement will no doubt paralyze the country\u2019s obligations
\nto engage with pressing economic and foreign policy issues, and may yet quell
\nTurkey\u2019s newfound enthusiasm for parliamentary politics. <\/p>\n
Some have put
\ntheir hopes on a new coalition without the AKP. Yet this poses the problem that
\na new Government will inherit the woes of the current administration, and would
\nlikely shoot Erdo\u011fan straight back into power during the next election cycle.
\nTo enter into a non-AKP coalition would hence seem political suicide. And yet
\nany party that joins an AKP coalition will find it difficult to live up to the
\npromise of change. <\/p>\n
The HDP knows it
\ncannot risk to dampen the momentum of the current wave of enthusiasm,
\nespecially considering that its real success was in capturing a large part of
\nthe Kurdish vote from the AKP, and not in the heralded consolidation of the
\nsupposed post-Gezi liberal vote. Here too, a paralyzed parliament will not be
\nable to bring about any change in the Kurdish issue, and will make it difficult
\nfor the HDP to retain its strategic advantage in the long term. <\/p>\n
On the other hand,
\nif the AKP chooses to strengthen its conservative base by forming a coalition
\nwith the nationalist MHP, it risks losing the Kurdish vote for good. In sum, as
\nthe parties pass the Hot Potato to avoid looking weak in the coalition
\nnegotiations, they risk losing the momentum required to bring about lasting
\nchange.<\/p>\n
If the opposition
\nparties want to retain the momentum that translated into electoral gains, they
\nneed to have the courage to accept these challenges, and to prove that they can
\nprovide an alternative to the strongman tactics that have come to define the
\nAKP political style. To transform the current optimism into a working
\ngovernment will require caution, strategy, and most of all the ability to
\nformulate a new vision for Turkey that both recognizes the breadth of the
\nchallenges at hand, without succumbing to the politics of polarization. <\/p>\n
This then, is
\nboth the pitfall as well as the potential of parliamentary politics; that the
\nparties have a chance to embrace cooperation, reject polarization, and prove
\nthat the prospect of forming new coalitions is no Hot Potato, but rather an
\nopportunity to steer Turkey back towards social cohesion and economic progress.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Grand national assembly of Turkey main chamber. Wikicommons\/VOA. some rights reserved.In politics, a Hot Potato is a topic so contentious that it causes damage to a candidate whether he shows himself to be for it or not. For a campaign to be successful, so argue strategists, such issues are best to be avoided altogether, or,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1381\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}