Picture from \u201cThe Banners of Occupied Kfar Nabel\u201d page on Facebook. Amnesty
\nInternational\u2019s
\nreport
\non mass hangings is a harrowing reminder of Assad\u2019s tyranny.
\nTorture, sexual
\nviolence, attacks on medical
\nfacilities, and murder and atrocities
\nare all components of a calculated
\nbrutality that has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions,
\nand caused untold misery.<\/i><\/p>\n
The
\ndecade leading up to the outbreak of war in Syria saw progress in
\nmarket liberalisation and growth. Though lagging behind most other
\nArab nations, economic
\nfreedom
\nand human
\ndevelopment
\nimproved and per capita income grew by 15%, with income levels higher
\nthan many neighbouring states (New
\nMaddison Project Database).
\nPer capita wealth doubled from $1,601 USD in 2000 to $3,283 USD in
\n2010 (Credit
\nSuisse, 2016).
\nOverall income inequality and the income share of the top 10% fell
\n(UNU-WIDER).
\nNone of this delivered welfare and political liberalization. Millions
\nlived in poverty.\n<\/p>\n
\nAs \nAs \nIn \n\u00a0\tThe \nThe \nIn \nAssad \nSyrians Picture from \u201cThe Banners of Occupied Kfar Nabel\u201d page on Facebook. Amnesty International\u2019s report on mass hangings is a harrowing reminder of Assad\u2019s tyranny. Torture, sexual violence, attacks on medical facilities, and murder and atrocities are all components of a calculated brutality that has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, and caused untold misery. The…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1344\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/googmn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nargued by Ronald Wintrobe in Rational
\nExtremism<\/em>,<\/em>
\ndictators hold power by a combination of loyalty to the regime and
\nrepression. Rising incomes and crony capitalism helped Assad to
\npurchase the loyalty of some, whilst repressing the many. Civil
\nliberties
\nand political rights flatlined. CIRI
\nhuman rights data
\nshow increased torture, extrajudicial killings, political
\nimprisonment, and disappearances in the years building up to 2011.
\nThis deterioration arose from a sequence of conscious decisions
\ninstigated by the Syrian state. For example, the Damascus
\nDeclaration, a united platform of various opposition groups demanding
\npeaceful democratic reform, sent alarm bells ringing. A call for
\ndemocracy posed a major threat to Syria\u2019s ruling elites. Assad
\nresponded with repression. The brutality accelerated exponentially
\nwith the Arab spring. In Wintrobe\u2019s terminology, Assad\u2019s goals
\nare indivisible: all or nothing, \u201cAssad or we burn the country\u201d.
\nAs discussed by Robin Yassin-Kassab and Leila Al-Shami (e.g. in
\nBurning
\nCountry<\/em>),
\nbrutality was employed to provoke a response; a political settlement
\nwould work against the regime, so Assad opted for military
\nconfrontation and civil war.\n<\/p>\n
\na rational extremist, Assad chose methods that would achieve his
\ngoals. Rather than accommodating demands for political participation
\nand allowing civil society to flourish, Assad responded with
\nbrutality and terror. With the aim to divide and rule, Assad
\nexploited ethnic and tribal rivalries and generated fear. Propaganda
\nportrayed all the opposition as terrorists. When the military tide
\nturned against the regime, Assad brought foreign nations to invade;
\ntyrants
\nbring the invaders.
\nSyrian and Russian military effort was primarily directed not at ISIS
\nbut at weakening the moderate opposition and shifting the balance in
\nfavour<\/em>
\nof jihadists; the fruits of this have now
\nbeen realised.
\nWhile these were highly risky strategies, the pay-offs to Assad\u2019s
\nsurvival have been enormous.<\/strong><\/p>\nOptions
\nfor peace<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nan ideal world, Assad would pay for his crimes. However, his foreign
\nbackers will prevent this. Exile to Russia or Iran is improbable. A
\nmoderate rebel victory is now unlikely. Russia\u2019s intervention
\nensured that there is no regime change; without it Assad would today
\nbe ousted. It is also unlikely that Syria could return to the
\npre-2011 status quo. Unfortunately, a permanent occupation, with
\nSyria as an Iranian proxy facing an on-going Sunni funded jihadist
\nrural insurgency is not out of the question.\n<\/p>\n
\nkey elements for a lasting peace are obvious: protecting civilians,
\nsupporting non-Baathists and non-jihadists, and fostering a
\nmulti-ethnic pluralistic society. To be successful, the peace process
\nneeds to appeal to the interests of several competing groups.\n<\/p>\n
\nmost pressing issue is the protection of civilians. This requires UN
\nand Russian backed safe zones, strict enforcement of ceasefire, and
\nan end to sieges and the forced removal of civilians.<\/p>\n
\nall likelihood, Assad will need to stay in power for a fixed period,
\ne.g. via a constitution imposed presidential term-limit. In the
\nmeantime, federalism offers a viable mechanism for peaceful
\ntransition, with decentralized autonomy given to three or four
\nregions. This would buy political and economic space for various
\ncompeting groups. Western and Arab donors should provide monitored<\/em>
\naid to these regions in exchange for cessation of conflict and
\nimproved governance and human rights. Autonomous regions could build
\nupon the civil society and grass roots developments (e.g. Local
\nCoordinating Committees) that emerged in the course of the rebellion
\n(see Burning
\nCountry<\/em>),
\npotentially serving as a model for the rest of Syria. Finally, there
\nwill need to be continued struggle against radical jihadists and
\nISIS.\n<\/p>\n
\ncannot rule by repression alone. He relies on support from within
\nSyria as well as from Russia and Iran. Syria\u2019s tribes
\n(e.g.
\nal-Zoubi, al-Masalmeh,
\nand Bani
\nKhalid) and
\nvarious ethnic communities (e.g. Alawites, Kurds, and Druze) have
\nplayed an important role for both the regime and the opposition and
\nneed to be brought into the peace process. The Kremlin must urgently
\nuse its political capital to convince Assad and Iran to implement
\npolitical reforms. Sanctions on Russia can be lifted in exchange,
\nwith Ukraine supported through aid and subsidies; a democratic and
\ncorruption free Ukraine is a better response to Russian aggression
\nthan trade reducing sanctions.\n<\/p>\n
\ncrave what all people want: to live in peace and dignity. The world
\nhas a duty to protect all civilians and this is ultimately in our own
\nself-interest. An injury to one is an injury to all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"