North Korea tested its first missiles since President Joe Biden took office, launching two short-range projectiles last weekend off the country\u2019s west coast and into the adjoining Yellow Sea.<\/p>\n
But you won\u2019t find the Biden administration threatening \u201cfire and fury\u201d any time soon. In fact, two senior US officials waved off suggestions that the test was a big deal or that it was meant as a direct challenge to the new US president.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve been in administrations where the North Koreans have really tested with provocative actions: nuclear tests, long-range systems,\u201d one of the officials told journalists about two hours after the Washington Post first reported on the launches. \u201cI would say, generally speaking, what we saw this weekend does not fall in that category.\u201d<\/p>\n
Biden himself told reporters on Tuesday that \u201caccording to the Defense Department, it\u2019s business as usual. There\u2019s no new wrinkle in what [North Korea] did.\u201d Asked if the test would affect any diplomatic efforts, the president just laughed and walked away.<\/p>\n
The administration\u2019s collective shrug is the right response, most experts told me. \u201cIt seems to me that these latest launches were probably not actually intended as a challenge to the Biden administration at all,\u201d said Markus Garlauskas, the US national intelligence officer for North Korea from 2014 to 2020. <\/p>\n
There are good reasons why. Former President Donald Trump implicitly made a deal with North Korea while he was in office: Test anything you want as long as it\u2019s not an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a nuclear weapon that could threaten America. Short of that, go nuts.<\/p>\n
That stance wasn\u2019t a wise one, experts told me at the time, as it essentially allowed Pyongyang to steadily improve its arsenal with no repercussions. But experts did note that Trump\u2019s dictum helped lower tensions by not turning every missile launch into a crisis requiring a forceful American response.<\/p>\n
It looks as though Pyongyang learned from its experience with Trump and is still abiding by that general deal. North Korea launched what appear to be short-range cruise missiles that don\u2019t violate UN Security Council resolutions on the country\u2019s weaponry. In other words, the North Korean regime had every right to try out its missiles and plunge them into the sea.<\/p>\n
North Korea didn\u2019t even announce the test as it usually does, signaling even Pyongyang felt it was all routine. Some experts, and even Biden administration officials, say the launches were part of \u201cnormal military activity\u201d by North Korean forces. <\/p>\n
Pyongyang\u2019s soldiers often participate in military exercises before they assist with the country\u2019s spring planting, the period when all citizens must grow rice and other crops to fulfill the country\u2019s agricultural needs.<\/p>\n
Sure, it\u2019s never nice when North Korea tests weapons \u2014 it can for sure feel scary, especially if you live within striking distance of said weapons \u2014 but this launch shouldn\u2019t worry Biden, US allies, or the global public. \u201cThis is such a nothing story,\u201d said Jenny Town, director of the Stimson\u2019s Center 38 North program, which tracks North Korea\u2019s political and military developments. <\/p>\n
How we\u2019ll know when North Korea wants to send a message<\/p>\n
It\u2019s important to note that North Korea has<\/em> stepped up its belligerence in recent days.<\/p>\n Blasting a joint US-South Korea military training exercise that took place this month, Kim Yo Jong \u2014 the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un \u2014 released a statement saying, \u201cWe take this opportunity to warn the new US administration trying hard to give off a powder smell in our land … if it wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.\u201d<\/p>\n And after the Biden administration repeatedly said it sought the \u201cdenuclearization of North Korea\u201d \u2014 implying only Pyongyang would have to make major nuclear concessions while the US would still maintain its nuclear defense of South Korea \u2014 the regime clapped back.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat has been heard from the US since the emergence of the new regime is only lunatic theory of \u2018threat from North Korea\u2019 and groundless rhetoric about \u2018complete denuclearization,\u2019\u201d said Choe Son Hui, the first vice minister of foreign affairs. All US attempts to reach out to North Korea for dialogue, which Biden\u2019s team has tried unsuccessfully to do, were a \u201ccheap trick,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n That comment, which seemed to close the door (at least rhetorically) to direct US-North Korea diplomacy, \u201cwas much more of a direct challenge\u201d to the administration than last weekend\u2019s missile test, said Garlauskas, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.<\/p>\n These comments and the missile test will certainly feature in the administration\u2019s North Korea review, which Biden officials say will conclude soon. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will discuss the outcome of that review next week with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts.<\/p>\n Whatever the result, experts say a clear challenge to Biden would be an ICBM or nuclear bomb test, effectively crossing the red line Trump set. The ICBM launch would be even more provocative if it was the new model displayed during a parade last October.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not only the biggest ICBM ever seen in North Korea, but also the largest road-mobile missile with its own truck-based launcher in the world. Which means that, in case of a war, North Korea\u2019s military could roll one of these missiles out of underground bunkers, place it somewhere on land, and shoot it at the United States.<\/p>\n Furthermore, experts suspect its bigger size allows the weapon to hold multiple nuclear bombs, roughly three or four (along with decoys, perhaps), which could overwhelm US missile defenses. The US has just 44 ground-based interceptors (missiles) in Alaska and California to shoot weapons out of the sky, using four interceptors to destroy each individual warhead.<\/p>\n Until that ICBM flies through the air or another similarly provocative test happens, experts say, Biden should respond with a dismissive chuckle.<\/p>\n \u201cOn a scale of one to 10, with 10 being a test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile and one is Kim farting in our general direction, this is a two,\u201d Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on North Korea\u2019s nuclear program at the Middle Institute of International Studies, told CNN on Tuesday.<\/p>\n